Johnson’s Conservatives top an ‘extraordinary’ opinion poll in Wales


Boris Johnson’s Conservatives lead an “unprecedented” opinion poll in Wales days after he became prime minister, with support for the Labour Party plummeting to its lowest ever level in the country.

A Welsh Political Barometer Poll for ITV puts the Conservatives up seven points, on 24%.

Meanwhile, Labour is on 22%, the lowest share of a poll it has ever received in Wales.

The poll — conducted immediately after Johnson became prime minister on Wednesday — followed a series of others on Sunday which indicated a bounce in Conservative support after the party’s change in leader.

A Deltapoll survey for the Mail on Sunday said that public support for the Tories had increased by ten points since Johnson replaced Theresa May as party leader and prime minister of the United Kingdom.

Here’s the Welsh poll:

Conservative — 24% (+7)

Labour — 22% (-3)

Brexit Party — 18% (-5)

Liberal Democrats — 16% (+4)

Plaid Cymru — 15% (+2)

Greens — 3% (-2)

Others — 1% (-4)

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If these numbers were repeated at a general election, Labour would still have the most seats in Wales.

However, it would be the first time they would not win a majority of seats there in over 100 years.

The seat projection put Labour on 18, the Conservatives on 16, Plaid Cymru on four, and the Lib Dems on two.

Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said the results were “extraordinary” because the combined intended vote share of the two main parties had collapsed compared to the last general election in 2017.

In the 2017 election, Labour and Conservatives received over 80% of the vote in Wales.

“These are quite extraordinary results, in many respects almost wholly unprecedented,” Awan-Scully said.

“Despite an apparent ‘Boris bounce’ for the Tories, worth seven percentage points, the poll shows the extent to which the dominance of the two largest parties has declined in recent months.

“This is the second Barometer in a row where the combined Labour and Conservative vote share is below 50%.”

The poll gives the Liberal Democrats their highest intended vote share since 2010.

Johnson will on Monday travel to Scotland where he will promise an additional £300 million for the devolved nations.

It follows a pledge last week to give £3.6 billion to deprived towns outside of London.

Polls show that the new prime minister is more unpopular in Scotland than in any other part of the United Kingdom, and will need to improve his standing there if he is to form a majority at the next general election.



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